And I’ve retraced the steps of youth
And its roses
Walking instead on thorn
Ahmad Shawqi. (My translation from Arabic.)D r a f t THE LARGER PICTURE
The larger picture is necessary. Though I don’t have access to so called “classified intelligence,” (or to my hefty file for that matter - -fame at last!) the Israel-Anchored Idiots’ construction of the Highway to Central Asia is in part to reinvent India as a Great Power to stand up to China. It’s meant to provide India access to Central Asian energy. One would be a fool to think that this aggressive effort is happening in a real power vacuum. The Highway is meant against China. China therefore should be present, I would think, though no tanks and troops are in evidence. Indirect presence?
Neither China nor the Israel-Anchored Idiots can afford a trade war. For China, a diminishment of its exports of uncertain substantiality (if growth dips below . . .) should spell relative instability and political trouble. For the Israel-Anchored idiots, shifting production home should spell inflation.
China should be able to rein in the instability through repression; the Israel-Anchored Idiots should be able to rein in inflation through higher interest rates - -and the opening of yet more jails - - unless marijuana is legalized. Marijuana should help the populace slow down and diminish their material expectations, just as kat slows down the Yemenis in employment-starved Yemen. (Qat sessions can take hours.) The age of an over-caffeinated populace, as in the age of the bubbles where the populace ran breathlessly for dollars, is over for now. Starbucks is out; marijuana clinics are in.D r a f t
If a trade war heats up, growth would take a significant hit for as long as the trade war remains vibrant. Diminished growth spells unemployment; unemployment spells political trouble.
With hints-bordering-on-accusations by Europe that the Israel-Anchored Idiots already are engaged in a trade war (the proposal for an air refueling tankers’ defense contract said to favor Boeing), Europe should find itself straggling between helplessness (vis-a-vis the Israel-Anchored Idiots) and a modicum of revolt. The Israel-Anchored Sarkozy government already has engaged in one defense sales contract with Russia, under the unstated guise that Russia would be needed for the encirclement-and-strangulation of the Islamic Republic.
Wannabe-Israel-Anchored India, somewhat using the same guise (seeking to distance Russia from Iran) has, too, engaged in hefty defense and civil nuclear reactor contracts with Russia. (This, in addition to the hefty defense contracts Wannabe-Israel-Anchored India has with its wished-for Anchor—Israel.)MILKING THE “UNDER THE GUISE” PROPOSITION
With all these strangle-Iran perks, would Russia bite? Would it so distance itself from the Islamic Republic as to partake in its encirclement-and-strangulation, on behalf of Israel and its Idiots? Instability in West Asia – sanctions should breed that - - should help lift oil prices, and that would be good for Russia. But Russia likely can ill-afford to ignore three factors:
(1) That if the Israel-Anchored Idiots succeed at eliminating the Islamic Republic, they would in effect succeed at controlling the oil of Iran and Iraq in full. Accordingly, the Idiots would unleash their companies in both countries to raise the production level of oil to bust oil prices once-and-for all. Russia would lose out big time. (As would the OPEC countries.)
(2) That if the Israel-Anchored Idiots succeed at eliminating the Islamic Republic, these Israel Idiots would gain a balcony seat, a clear view, on the shores of the Caspian, and be that much closer to the Central Asian Republics - - a sea of energy sources. Concomitantly, if success in Pakistan/Afghanistan (dream on), the Israel Idiots’ proximity to the Central Asian states might just translate into near-total control of those states. Russia could never compete with the Israel Idiots because the competition, if the Israel Idiots have a clear view of Central Asia, would be mostly financial. If Islamic Iran hadn’t existed, Russia would have to invent it. Case closed.
(3) That to the extent that Iran monopolizes Islam, Russia would have to be concerned about Iran’s influence among Russia’s Muslims. Iran can retaliate against Russia by using its Islamic influence to create instability there. But the reverse, too, is equally valid: That Iran can use its Islamic influence to appease the Muslims of Russia. We’ll have to see, though, whether Iran can widen its Islamic influence by crossing over into the Arab Sunnis - -not only the very fringe - - who now matter the most—the Iraqi. The Palestinians are too far away and so divided and emaciated by the Israel Idiots purchase of Fateh. The test for Iran and its Islamic influence are the Arab Iraqi Sunnis. For now, Iran has left these to Arab Syria.D r a f t
Is Russia torn? On the one hand, Russia reaps benefits by partaking in the encirclement-and-strangulation of Islamic Iran - - e.g., arms and nuclear reactor contracts, cooperation with the Israel-Anchored Idiots on nuclear arms issues, and recognition by Israel-Anchored Europe (i.e., NATO) of Russia as a Great Power with its own sphere of influence.
On the other hand, there are significant benefits to not hurting Iran, most importantly: to disallow the Israel-Anchored Idiots from dominating Iranian and Iraqi oil and, equally importantly, from gaining a solid foothold in Central Asia. These strategic benefits, I believe, should put the brakes on any Russian policy of significance directed at crippling the Islamic Republic.
This is especially true since Russia can ride the guise/ruse of participating in the encirclement-and-strangulation of the Islamic Republic far enough to collect some benefits along its cunning way - - e.g., the purchase of one (or two?) naval ships from the Israel-Anchored Sarkozy government and the nuclear reactor and defense contracts with wannabe-Israel-Anchored India.
So, you see, the guise of partaking in the Israel-and-its-Diaspora’s wished-for strangulation of the Islamic Republic has become a chip to play for benefits for this-or-that country (e.g., Russia, India), and this-or-that politician (e.g., Sarkozy, John McCain.) (What’s funny is that India, for example, would hedge its bets about Central Asia by signing lucrative contracts with the Russians, while portraying such to the idiots as a means to distance Russia from Iran.)HOW IT ALL TRANSLATES ON THE GROUND IN PLANTATION IRAQ
As highlighted (somewhat) in the past two posts of this blog, the Israel-Anchored Idiots (as proven idiots) shouldn’t know their Arab and Islamic limitations. They should want to defend their “gains” in Plantation Iraq. (These are really humiliating losses, not gains; losses that impugn the intelligence of policy makers and reflect the mediocrity of their conceptual abilities; but spin is spin, right?) Plantation Iraq therefore can become a dagger directed at the Islamic Republic to change its government and reach the Caspian - - one rest-stop on the Highway to Central Asia which the Israel-Anchored Idiots are building. (Think of it like this: If life gives you a lemon - -the systemic post-cold war power vacuum trap, and you as Idiots are lacking in conceptual intelligence, you fall into that trap - - do make a lemonade - - that is, dig yourself deeper into that trap by constructing an obscenely expensive Highway to Central Asia’s energy sources until your country cries financial uncle twenty times over.) D r a f t
But Plantation Iraq should be Islamic Iran’s lungs, and one would want to protect one’s lungs come-what-may. Right?
Even if the Israel-Anchored Idiots should want to reach a memorandum of understanding with the Islamic Republic, to include Plantation Iraq, the mistrust between the two - - the Israel Idiots and the Islamic Republic - - should continue on. It would take a lot for that mistrust to evaporate. It would take the Israel-Anchored Idiots shedding their Anchor, or reining it in tightly. It would take Israel instructing its Diaspora institutions to stop waging campaigns for war and sanctions on Iran, and from waging campaigns in the West against Islam and Muslims. (Or, maybe not since these campaigns can reinforce the Iranian view of the Muslim identity. Go Israel-and-Diaspora institutions. Churn your own stupid sectarian/national consensus, blindly. You’re but a treasure to Iran.) A tall order, since I don’t think that the Idiots can ever shed their Israel Anchor, or can stop their Anchor and its Diaspora institutions from crafting alliances and coalitions meant to pit the West against Muslims. Politics (the Jewish Diaspora’s political activism on behalf of Israel and the alliances the Diaspora institutions craft and the allegiances they buy) shall overwhelm bureaucracies (e.g., the Pentagon with its evolving thoughts about Israel no longer being a strategic asset but a strategic burden) any day.
So, you see, the Israel-Anchored Idiots don’t seem to have given up on the idea of the Highway to Central Asia, in spite of financial ruin. In part, this is due to the fact that the Israel-Anchored Idiots are foreign policy idiots, and don’t understand their country’s economic strait - - and don’t want to since that’s not their job. (It’s called “functional specialization” and it’s perceived as a sign of an advanced civilization - -of a larger brain- - by the Idiots’ academicians.) Besides, the Israel-Anchored Idiots’ country is looking so well in comparison to Europe (think Greece, and now Portugal, and later possibly Spain and Italy), and should look decent (also in relative terms) as China spends its surplus to make up for the losses incurred by its citizens in the coming explosion (likely) of its real estate bubble. (Where would all the money have gone? Ask the newly-minted Chinese billionaires.)
Still, typical for the Israel Idiots, they are always in the mode of nursing illusions. A couple of their current illusions:
-- That Pakistan would not, one-way-or-another, pursue jealously a policy of defending its interests in Afghanistan and Kashmir. (The Pakistani Foreign Minister in Washington is full of it. Not to mention that he is a lousy and un-persuasive actor. Talking about terrorists! The same people who Pakistan needs and has used to protect its interests in Afghanistan and Kashmir. But he’s the one the Pakistani establishment chose to dispatch to obtain cargo for the Pakistani state. Visibly, though: Acting must not be a Pakistani forte.) That, in fact, Pakistan should be leading on the Israel Idiots as a way of making its payroll as a state while keeping its options open; and so it will be careful not to burn too many bridges with its natural allies should the Highway open up through Iran and/or Afghanistan and wannabe Israel-Anchored Indian operatives flood Afghanistan and the Central Asian states, or should the Highway not open up.
-- That Russia, so lured by arms and nuclear power reactor contracts and such other lucrative deals, would not think that the recognition by the Israel-Anchored West (even if sanctioned by the U.N.) of Russia’s sphere of influence is a ruse until such time that the Israel- Anchored West would come out from under and return once again to, say, arming Georgia. The Russians are stupid, you see.
The Highway Project therefore still is alive. And Iraq and Iran stand in the way of a smooth Highway. So, in essence, the Israel Idiots should not be expected to cease pressure on Iran or quit on their ambitions to turn Iraq into a base in West Asia. Iran, too, shouldn’t be expected to play dead and allow Iraq to be transformed into a proxy-for-Israel base against it.D r a f t
With endemic distrust on both sides, an unconventional war should erupt between the Israel-Anchored Idiots and the Islamic Republic in Plantation Iraq. It’s anyone’s guess what course that war would take - - though, in the end, it’ll be all about who shall control the Iraqi state. (I started to highlight the war’s likely course, but gave up. Summer is nearly here and it’s time for fun-in-the-sun, seriousness to be out-spun, going for a run, a tan shall be won.)
Suffice it to say that the Israel Idiots just can’t shed illusions - -and therefore just don’t get it: that we’re bankrupt and that miscalculation is likely yet again in West Asia—and therefore a deeper bankruptcy. For there’s no assurance whatsoever that the war-by-proxy in Iraq wouldn’t enlarge and inflame even more Pakistan and Afghanistan - -and the front between he Idiots’ jewel and Lebanon and Syria. Iran shouldn’t be expected to play by the Israel Idiots’ rules meant to suffocate it. The war-by-proxy might, too, become a direct war. Though Defense Secretary Gates has gone on record as saying that the Idiots wouldn’t want a war because, in part, one wouldn’t know the course it’ll take (he was most certainly referring to the Israel’s-Boys-at-the-Pentagon and Iraq) - - the war might still happen, anyway. For there’s such conceptual mediocrity going around, one that is due in great part to the weighing down on the Idiots’ brains of the Israel Anchor. And there’s no cutting loose that Anchor.
And here: watch for deeper-and-deeper bankruptcy. To illustrate:
“The Pentagon spent more than $30 billion buying an earlier model of the IED-resistant trucks, only to discover that they were largely useless in Afghanistan because of its harsh terrain.”
(Yoshi J. Dreazen, “Afghan Bombs Grow, Forcing Troops to Adapt,” WSJ
, 3/20/2010 at A-9.)SAUDI ARABIA PREPARES FOR THE WAR-BY-PROXY IN PLANTATION IRAQ
I’ve covered at length the re-establishment of warm relations between the Saudi ruling elite and Arab Syria. The last insight I’ve put forward was that the Saudi ruling elite are using Arab Syria - - and paying it off, it better be handsomely - - to neutralize Iraqi Arab Sunni revanchism against the Saudi ruling elite. That elite had partnered with the Israelis and their Idiots to dismember Arab Iraq and disenfranchise its Arab Sunnis. Fait accompli. Israeli Diaspora Boys’ shit is being eaten by the Iraqi Arab Sunnis as I write.D r a f t
But, viewed from the perspective outlined above, there’s yet another reason for the rapprochement that the Saudi ruling elite has sought with Arab Syria. The Saudi elite are helping out. Who? They’re helping out the Israel-Anchored Idiots, yet again. They’re partnering with the Idiots in the coming proxy war with Iran inside Plantation Iraq. (Both they and the idiots are dangerous sophomores, aren’t they?)
The Israel Idiots are using the Saudi ruling elite to neutralize Arab Syria in that war. I’m going to venture a wild guess (I’m not hedging: but it really is a wild guess - -a clearer picture will be found below) and say that Syria likely, for the money – I’m sure it’s making the payroll for the Iraqi Baathists out of Saudi payments - - will be neutralized. Bashar now dines with the son of the Saudi King, both to get fat together and develop type-2 diabetes.
But Arab Syria has to watch out. If the Iraqi Baath in Syria doesn’t play a role in the coming proxy war inside Iraq, or if it plays the wrong role (such as siding with the Saudi proxies), then it’ll come to full political death. The younger ones will take over in full, and will fight other Sunni younger ones funded by Saudi intelligence. Arab Syria, too, would run the risk of becoming insignificant in Iraq should it have the Iraqi Baath-in-Syria act neutral or, worse, align with those Sunnis who are funded by Saudi intelligence. Arab Syria can ill-afford this. Only an Iraq that would give it strategic depth –geographically and in resources - - is a worthwhile Iraq for Syria - -not one that would sandwich it between two Israels, the one jewel of the Idiots, and the other - - Iraq - - a de facto ally of Israel. In other words, an Arab Iraq once again, but this time not ruled by paranoid idiots who are out to defend “the Arabs” - - the fat self-hating dubious Arabs, but an Iraq that would help Syria out in the confrontation with the Idiots’ jewel. D r a f t
Remaining neutral, or siding with the Saudi proxies - - the same as aligning with the Israel Idiots - - could lose Syria its future prominence inside Iraq. (Remember: Iraq is a hell of a resource-rich country.) Arab Syria would have to decide: the old-and-reliable relationship with the Islamic Republic –which had helped it win wars through Hezbollah and has provided it with effective deterrence - - or the Saudi ruling elite which will see you to the gallows in Texas-like lynching and will try to divide Sunni from Shiite.
All in the Arab nation have learnt the Iraq lesson: the Saudi ruling elite and the Israel Idiots have no friends. [SELF-DELETED]
The Arab Iraqi Sunnis (AND the Arab Shiites) had paid so dearly in blood and treasure to defend these [SELF-DELETED]
Realistically, though, the likely Syrian role inside Iraq would be to mediate for the Saudis with Iran. The mediation would be about what Saudi proxies would remain in government after the troops of the Israel-Anchored Idiots thin out. Likely, too, the Saudi ruling elite is hammering with the Syrian a list of people, former Baath and Saudi proxies, who would remain in or re-enter in the state apparatus in Iraq - - Iran willing. Iran should accommodate Syria, and Saudi Arabia but only through Arab Syria. But the Saudi-Syrian list should hardly be safe from future elimination. It’ll be the dynamics of Iraqi politics that should see this list evaporate, not Iran per se.
This is the LIKELY role. It could be, however, that Syria would make the mistake of keeping the Iraqi-Baath-in-Syria out of it - - if a war-by-proxy does erupt. It could be that the words Mr. Asad is spouting about “lam al-shaml
” (to gather up the Arabs), paralleling the current policy of the Saudi ruling elite, aren’t just a moneymaking ruse; it could be that these words are the real thing.
It could be, too, that all the informants the American intelligence apparatus (the Assholes) had unleashed against me were/are meant for my own good. So many possibilities; so many assholes.